We are at beginning of a new cycle in the gaming industry, as new consoles appear and the old ones slowly fade away. Actually, I should say, the old ONE, since Playstation is really the only viable holdout from the 32-bit generation; Jaguar, 3DO, CDi and Saturn have all long since dropped off most gamer’s radar. Dreamcast is coming into its own, PS2 just launched and there are two more major consoles set to appear late next year. Looking back over the previous generations of consoles, I can’t help but notice that the trend is for two systems to enter fierce competition for the market share, while the remaining systems squabble for leftovers, and disappear quickly. What are my predictions for the 128-bit generation?

The players are all established powers in either the videogame or PC industry – Sega, Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft. All four companies have strong brand name recognition and strong consumer loyalty. The struggle will definitely take place between these four juggernauts; any other entries will quickly disappear, or more likely, not even make a splash (Nuon, anyone). I’m going to break down each company and my take on their prospects one at a time.

Sega: Dreamcast came out of the gates somewhat shakily, but Sega seems to have reversed their direction, made some smart marketing moves and played the online game very wisely. Dreamcast has a built-in modem, so consumers weren’t forced to buy a pricey add-on, which would have doomed Sega’s online prospects, and their free Dreamcast rebates sold both systems and Sega.Net subscriptions. By all accounts, Sega.Net is a success and the online-ready games are finally starting to appear in droves. Sega has also released a steady stream of fun and different games, like Seaman, Jet Grind Radio, Samba de Amigo and Marine Fishing, along with sequels to their hit sports franchises, in the past few months. The Sega lineup going into 2001 looks strong, with Phantasy Star Online and Crazy Taxi 2 generating frenzied discussion on the net. I think that Sega is going to emerge as one of the two big players in this new generation of hardware. They’ve got the head start, the online component and the games all lined up – as long as they don’t do something dumb, like sell out to Microsoft, they should be just fine.

Sony: Let’s face it, nobody expected Playstation to be the huge success it became; Sony entered the videogame market as an unknown entity with only the Sony name garnering recognition. Sony marketed the machine well and took the reigns of the 32-bit generation. I think Sony is poised to lose the race this time around. First, no company has dominated two generations of hardware in a row to this day. Starting with 8-bit, Nintendo beat Sega, then Sega won 16-bit with Genesis, and finally, Sony stepped in and pulled the carpet out from under both Nintendo and Sega with Playstation, and here we are. PS2 is hard to develop for, it has no built-in online component and no network for online games, and the initial batch of games have been terribly underwhelming. Sony fanboys point to Metal Gear Solid 2 as the game that will prove to the world that PS2 is the killer system they know in their biased little hearts that it is, but that game is more than a year away. Yes, software will get better. Probably much, much better. But by the time it does, Sega developers will have had a few years lead programming for Dreamcast, and their games will be better, too. I certainly don’t think that Sony is going to fade out 3DO style – they have too much recognition and support, but I think that the hardcore contingent of gamers is going to drift toward other platforms.

Nintendo: GameCube is the great unknown at this point, but I am willing to hazard a guess and make the predictions that we are going to see a Sega/Nintendo battle in this next generation of game consoles. I think that Nintendo has learned from their N64 mistakes. GameCube will be more powerful than PS2 and Dreamcast, easy to program for and will come out of the gates with strong launch software.

Microsoft: Another unknown in the videogame hardware arena, they have the cash to snap up developers left and right, but are gamers going to shell out money for what is essentially a stripped down PC? Like Sony, Microsoft will probably be able to make a dent simply on name recognition and fan base alone, but I don’t think they will win a dominant market share with X-Box.

So, I predict that by Christmas 2001, we will see Sega and PS2 battling it out fiercely, with strong GameCube sales threatening both companies. X-Box will launch strongly, but sales will quickly taper off, leaving the market split (from greatest share to least share) – Sony, Sega, Nintendo, Microsoft. By Spring 2001 I think we’ll see Nintendo climb up the ladder and dethrone Sony, and a neck and neck Sega/Nintendo battle will ensue. I think X-Box will lose support first, and that Sega will announce a new system by the end of 2001. PS2 sales will still be strong, though, and we could very well see a 3-way Sega/Sony/Nintendo split as well. Of course, the only way to know what’s going to happen is to wait until happens, but this is my prediction. Do you have an opinion on this topic? Head on over to the Game Hits forum, in the Other section, and share your thoughts in the Topic named "Next Generation Console War."