As of this writing, on November 6, 2001, the gaming industry is balanced on the brink between old and new – PS2 has emerged victorious from the smoking ashes of the last round, building steam and blazing past the run-its-course N64 and Sega’s prematurely deceased Dreamcast. In the next two weeks, we’ll see two new contenders enter the ring, and the stage will be set for a three-way battle royale between Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. Here are my thoughts and opinions on each of these companies, their consoles and the games we’ll see for each before the end of the year.

I predicted last fall, in writing and in many discussions with friends, which the PS2 wouldn’t start to see truly killer games until a year after launch. In my opinion I was right on the money. In the past couple of weeks we’ve seen games like Ace Combat 04, Devil May Cry, Grand Theft Auto III and Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 3, and in another week the highly anticipated Metal Gear Solid 2 will hit stores. Any of these games could justify the purchase of a PS2, and Sony’s next-generation machine is finally coming into its own. With an Ethernet/modem adapter coming in a couple of months, Sony’s black box will finally join Sega’s Dreamcast with online playability. Early adopters can even purchase one of several select USB modems and jump into THPS3 games online right now. The design decisions Sony implemented into PS2 are obviously paying off for the company – Psone compatibility has no doubt played a role in keeping Sony’s old console viable, probably extending its life by an extra 6 months to a year. Parents looking to buy a new console for their kids this holiday might be more likely to buy a PS2 with its backwards compatibility, and its ability to use Psone controllers, cables and other peripherals. Sony is in a very good position this Q4 to maintain and advance their lead in the videogame market, and they’ve got triple A games coming from companies like Konami, Capcom, Square and others that are going to turn heads and move systems.

The first new entry into this new war is Microsoft’s massive Xbox. While Xbox has some good ideas going for it, most notably a built-in hard drive that eliminated the need for memory cards and gives players some neat new options like ripping music from CDs into games, there are several factors working against Microsoft. I think the main one of these is the fact that Microsoft is not a name generally associated with videogames. Sony managed to get around this, so there’s a precedent… however there are also many more companies who have tried to start up a game console and failed – 3DO, CDi, Nuon… even Atari, a company whose name has been synonymous with video games for decades couldn’t rekindle the flames of success with its tremendously horrible Jaguar. Microsoft has gathered together (read: bought) some talent, although some of their acquisitions are questionable. Former PC developer Bungie hit the jackpot of success with its cult hit Myth and the sequel, but its long-awaited follow-up, Oni, was an embarrassingly bad game with too many problems to detail here. They’re working on Halo, a game that was looking very promising for PC but has since been completely reworked for Xbox, with substandard results. It just plain looked better on the PC. Microsoft also has Oddworld Inhabitants working on another Abe sequel, but there hasn’t been much "killer app" buzz about the game. That’s the main problem I see with the Xbox – aside from Tecmo’s Dead or Alive 3, there are no games for the thing that have made me take real notice of the system. A lot of the games are rehashes of existing games, like Tony Hawk 2X and Star Wars Starfighter Special Edition. Beyond that, there’s the controller, a monster hunk of plastic that feels awkward and unwieldy to me… of course, I hated Sega’s Dreamcast controller design, too, but came to love that system, despite what I still see as a seriously flawed controller. Price is the other major factor that will work against Microsoft this fall. With GameCube coming in at $200, and everyone expecting a price drop for PS2, Xbox is expensive at $300. Beyond that, the expected unit shortage has many retailers pre-selling the Xbox as a $500 bundle package only, making the sure to be easier to garb GameCube seem like a steal by comparison. However, if Microsoft can garner a decent user base, we’ll likely start to see some great stuff for it in a year or so.

Nintendo has three huge benefits to its GameCube system – recognizable name brand in the gaming industry, lowest price of the three consoles, and blockbuster sellers in Star Wars Rogue Leader and Luigi’s Mansion. Parents are going to be more likely to buy their kids the new Nintendo system this holiday than Microsoft’s unproven Xbox. Although adult gamers gripe about Nintendo’s systems having a higher kiddie-to-mature game ratio, the fact is that the kiddie games sell, and Nintendo’s target audience for GameBoy Color and N64 has always been skewed young, thanks mainly to the Pokemon series. GameCube might change this, with the recently announced Resident Evil exclusive 6 game deal. Rogue Leader will also bring in older gamers. The ‘Cube has an incredible controller, easily the most comfortable of all three systems. The only problem with its design is that it’s not going to be very compatible with certain games… THPS3 is going to be a huge adjustment for fans of the previous PS titles because of the button layout.

I think that the Q4 2001 results will be as follows: PS2 taking the lead, moving more systems thanks to games like THPS3, GTA III and MGS2. Microsoft will sell out its initial quantity and Xbox will be hard to find on store shelves, thanks mainly to a manufactured system shortage, much like Sony’s PS2 launch. GameCube will be in heavier supply, and will sell more units by Christmas than Xbox. Nintendo is taking the high road and not creating demand by shorting the supply this time, and I think it’s going to pay off for them. Microsoft is shooting themselves in the foot by shorting their supply.

Next year at this time, here’s what I see happening. Sony will still lead the industry, with 3^rd generation PS2 games starting to appear and a strong installed user base lead. Nintendo will have overtaken Microsoft and 2^nd generation games like Mario, Zelda and the inevitable Pokemon games will give it a solid boost to carry the platform through Q4 2002. Microsoft will be struggling in the 3^rd place position, but 2^nd generation games will help sales.

Here’s a wild prediction – I think that after a couple of years of building up their finances as a 3^rd party developer, Sega will re-enter the console war with a new system by the year 2005. Why? I think that Xbox is the next Dreamcast, and I believe that it’s going to follow a similar path – a couple of years of support and then exit stage left. Microsoft will stick with developing video games for the PC. With only two strong systems after a few years, the PS2 and the GameCube, Sega will begin to consolidate their finances and start researching options for a comeback. Hey, it could happen.