02/02/01

Warning: the following is a collection of random thoughts and ramblings from a jaded, pissed of biased ass Sega fanboy, who's mad at the game industry, the press, the general public, and pretty much everyone. Take this into consideration as you read on.

Y'know, I've kind of been in a bleak, end-of-the-world mood lately, especially with the recent news of the possible end of Sega and the Dreamcast as we know it. As I look at the future of console gaming, It just doesn't look all that good. There may be some of you who might remember a little article that I wrote last year by the name of "I Fear Sony" (if you Sony fanboys wanna get all hot and bothered, I suggest you look in the Fat n' Geeky archives and give it a read). It's a bit dated now, but it's gist was that Sony's going to destroy the console world as we know it by overhype and oversaturation, without delivering on quality, much like what happened back in the early '80's with Atari. At this time, the first signs of this seem to be happening.

Sales of the PS2 in Japan have slowed to a complete crawl. Nobody's buying the systems, and nobody's buying the games. What are they buying instead? Hmmm....good question. PS1 console and game sales are still brisk, but dropping. Nintendo's console sales for 1 or 2 games are great, but ONLY for 1 or 2 games. The Dreamcast sales in Japan are pathetic, to the point that Sega has no choice but to consider other options just to stay in business.

There is a bit of a recession going on in Japan right now, and that's what most analysts seem to blame for the lack of sales. I don't think that's quite it, though. In the beginning, the PS2 was selling like wildfire, though the software sales were never really up to snuff (no wonder, look at what they have to offer...). The Japanese were just as disappointed by the lackluster final product of the PS2 as we were, and if there's one thing that seems to be a constant in gaming history, it is that the Japanese market is a LOT more unforgiving than the American market is. In Japan, there isn't a "big 3" or a "big 2" in console makers, there is "1". In the 8-bit days, the Famicom (NES in the US) was the "1". Much like in the US, Sega's Mark III system (Master System here), was a distant, distant second (It was #1 in Europe). The next system has enjoyed almost absolute superiority there was the PC Engine (AKA the ill-fated TurboGrafx 16 in the US). Sega's Mega Drive (Genesis here), was mostly considered a failure. Nintendo's Super Famicom (Super NES) also enjoyed great success in Japan, basically replacing the PC Engine as the main system. The "in-between systems", such as the 3DO, CD-I, and Jaguar, (especially Jaguar), were not really a factor in Japan. The next system to enjoy absolute superiority was the original Playstation, though actually the Sega Saturn did enjoy considerable success in Japan as well.

So here we are at the present time. The PS1 is still number 1 in Japan, but now that it's successor is out, and support is dropping, it will eventually be phased out. The Dreamcast had a weak start in Japan that they have not really have been able to recover from, despite their recent innovative new titles. The Nintendo 64 is somewhat successful, but it's lack of 3rd party games and expensive nature puts it far behind the Playstation in sales. As for the PS2, sales started strong, then fell off to almost nothing. Software sales were weak to begin with, and have only gone down. Many PS2s sold as inexpensive DVD players, and nothing more. In short, NOTHING is really selling all that well in the console market (Handhelds, now THAT'S another story altogether, and the primary reason Nintendo is still #1 in software sales).

What happened? Well, seeing as Sony didn't deliver on it's (actually, it's fanboys') promises (honestly, how could they?) it looks like everybody's waiting for the other new systems due this year, Microsoft's X-Box and Nintendo's Gamecube. I'm betting that the Japanese aren't really concerned with the X-Box at all right now, but a $500 million advertising blitz will fix that. With the ultra-loyal fanbase that Nintendo has collected over the years, right now it looks like many are depending on them for the next true new gaming experience, saving console gaming just like they did in the mid-'80s with the original NES. The question is...can they deliver? They didn't with the N64, and the face of gaming now is far different from what it was back in the '80s.

Right now, it looks like the future of console gaming as we know it, in the US, Japan, and everywhere, is going to depend on one thing: how well the console maker perceived to be "the best" does. At the present time, that company is Sony. Due to the sheep-like nature of the general public, and it's willingness to blindingly follow those with the most hype, Sony is #1 without any question (PLENTY of question from me and some other long time gamers, but face it: The "hard-core" audience doesn't matter all that much to the bean-counters that run these companies).

However, even to those of the most stalwart faith, hype does eventually give way to reality. Gaming consumers are maliciously impatient, and feel the need for instant gratification. So far, the PS2 is not delivering. The impatient consumers will not wait long before they look for their ultimate release from the humdrum reality of life elsewhere. But where? Will they look to another gaming system, like Sega?

Nope.

You see, in the eye of the general pubic, Sega is perceived as a "second stringer". Sony is "the best", and if Sony's games aren't any good, then why try to bother with something that everybody TELLS you isn't as good as they are? For the few who do try Sega's system, it's hard to overcome years of brainwashing hype and current peer pressure, and come to grips with the fact that perhaps this system DOES have something to offer. That would imply that the consumer was "wrong". This is something that a lot of people will NOT accept about themselves, in any form (I know I sure have a hard time accepting when I'm wrong, which, albeit, isn't too often. hehe.). They might blame their friends, or the hype machine, but ultimately it was the consumers themselves who believed what was said. They certainly believed it about the Sega Saturn, and it's pretty humorous to me that recently I have seen a lot of people on forums "discovering" the wonders of the Saturn. Suprise, suprise. It was ALWAYS good, but at the time it counted, most let their biases and Sony's hype blind them.

There is no question that Sega has made mistakes in the past, that tarnished their reputation in the eyes of many consumers. The general public tends to hold on to these negative values whether or not they still hold true. It's the simplest, most general way to think, and therefore the most accepted. The "fact" that "Sega sucks" seems to be a foregone conclusion. Perhaps I'm underestimating the general gaming public, but with all of the current seemingly hopeful rumors floating around about Sega's demise, and the unmitigated willingness of EVERY NEWS SOURCE printing Sega-negative news, whether it's true or not, I just don't think so. ANYTHING to prove the analysts and consumers "right", even if they have to go so far as to MAKE it happen. Do I sound jaded? You're Damn right I am.

Let's get back to Nintendo saving console gaming for the masses. Will it happen? Perhaps, but Nintendo is suffering from perception now as well. Not as an inferior company, but as a "Children's company". Even many of us more serious gamers consider Nintendo as such, because we grew up with their games and characters, who haven't really changed all that much in the last 20 years. Nintendo also has the perception of being very resistant to change and innovation (which is a perception I believe as well). They had a big part in creating Video games as we know them today, but what have they done lately? Does anyone really expect groundbreaking innovations with the Gamecube? (maybe some hand-numbingly painful new controllers, but besides that...) If so, I'd wager you should prepare for some disappointment, at least as long as Yamuichi-san's still in power there. And do they really think a single game like Rare's Conker is going to change the "kiddie" perception? I guarantee you it won't. All it will do is tarnish the positive side of Nintendo's wholesome family image.

As much as many of you "hard-core" (just another word for biased-ass fanboy in my vocabulary) gamers grunt, groan, and wince at the thought, I believe that Microsoft has the best chance of "saving" the console game industry. Sure, they have their nay-sayers and doubters, but a lot of fans as well, and they are perceived as being a big, respected company, just like Sony is. If they can convince everyone that THEY'RE "the best" (they have the budget and marketers to do it), and can actually deliver somewhat on their promises, Microsoft has the opportunity to take the lead in the console race, and keep people buying. In the US, I think the X-Box is almost guaranteed to do well. In Japan, I'm just not sure, and if they don't embrace it and make games for it (so far few Japanese companies are), it's future will be in doubt.

Many are surprised at the lack of quality of the recent Sony titles. Why? It's competition that makes these games great, and who does Sony need to compete with? Sega? No. Like I said before, it doesn't seem to matter what they do, Shenmue, Jet Grind, whatever, the general public simply ignores them. Nintendo? No. They're in their own world, doing their own thing, and they really aren't competing. Sony's 3rd party publishers are discovering that they don't need to work very hard either, at least not until everyone catches on that these games simply aren't at the level of quality they need to be. Case in point: Square and Konami (I won't get into it here, but if you Final Fantasy fanboys REALLY wanna hate me, be sure to read "10 things I hate about Final Fantasy, already available at this website). And do you really think that 989 Studios could have gotten away with a PS1 equivalent title as poorly done as Gameday 2000 for the PS2 back in the early days of the PS? Nuh-uh. Bleak and dark is the future of gaming when the thing you're looking most forward to is a 5TH Twisted Metal (sorry Jake, I just had ta say it).

This is another reason that console gaming as we know it depends on Microsoft. If the X-Box does well, and has a library of good games coming for it, it will force Sony to improve it's library as well, and perhaps gaming will thrive again. They will be the competition Sony and it's 3rd parties (many of which are making X-Box games as well) needs to get off of their collective asses and actually make something worth playing.

What about the "true" game companies that we grew up with? From the sounds of things, 2001 will be the last year that Sega will support the Dreamcast, unless something drastic happens. There are a lot of recent rumblings that Sega will eventually become a full-time 3rd Party developer. This could actually be good for Sega, and would definitely be good for whoever they make games for. There are also rumors of Sega putting Dreamcast technology in a set-top box DVD player combo. To be honest, I personally could care less about whether or not my game system can play DVDs, but it seems to be important to some...

If Nintendo holds true to form, we won't see the Gamecube until 2002, and at that time, hopefully it won't become another unsupported, 2 titles worth playing a month Nintendo 64, but seeing that Nintendo is STILL in denial about the shortcomings of their current console, unfortunately that's about the only future I see for the Gamecube. Yeah, they have must play games like Mario (again), Zelda (again), and maybe, possibly, Metroid (goin' 3D would WRECK it. It seems that few people realize that Rare's lackluster Jetforce Gemini started out as a newwwww METROID!! They WISELY ended up not putting that name on it), but Nintendo seems to think they don't NEED 3rd party support. News flash: They do. If they get' em, Nintendo will be a factor in the next generation console world. If not, they won't. Simple as that.

So what will happen if Microsoft, or Nintendo fails to catch the public eye? In my view, PS2 sales will continue to flatline (no competition=no good games=no sales), the console game industry will crash, much like it did in the early '80s, and the current crop of consoles will be the last we'll see for awhile, then a few years down the road, someone will try to revive the console gaming field once again. I know a lot of you think that gaming is too mainstream now to go out like that, but in my view, that's precisely why it might. Sony puts insurmountable amounts of money in this business, and so does anyone who works in it, thanks to it's current mainstream position. There is a lot more potential now to lose millions and millions of dollars in a failed console project, or even a single overhyped game, and NO company can take that for too long.

Overall, we'll just have to wait and see, but in a way, I think it might be getting to the point where the industry needs a major shakeup, to get rid of some of the get-rich-quick low quality game makers that are plaguing the market now, and to bring gaming back to those who really care about it. We don't need multi million-sellers or flash and glitter, we need GOOD GAMES. Wherever those go, computers, hand-helds, continued support in consoles, cel-phones, WHEREVER....that's where you'll find me, and other true gamers.

-Fat

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