3/31/00

Console Wars: Episode IV

A New Hope

Wow, has it been five years already? I guess that time flies whilst having fun. However, we are once again entering that transition from the old to the new. This is the fourth generation of hardware of what I like to call the Modern Age of Gaming (basically, gaming since the catastrophic Atari crash of 1983). The road to this new generation has been bumpy indeed, with plenty of both victors and casualties.

Nintendo single-handedly revived the industry with the release of its Nintendo Entertainment System back in 1985. With its only competition being the laughable Atari 7200 and the technically superior, but software lacking, Sega Master System, the NES dominated the 8-Bit era and brought gaming back into the limelight. Sega returned with a vengeance in 1989 with its Sega Genesis. Beating Nintendo to market by almost two years, Sega combined a great software library with brilliant marketing to become the 16-Bit market leader. The Turbo-Grafx was also launched in 1989, but while great, never really garnered mainstream support. Nintendo finally got its Super NES out in 1991, but it was never considered the "cool" system to own. Nintendo will claim that, sales-wise, the Super NES did eventually outsell the Genesis, but by the time that happened, the real gamers had all moved on to the 32-Bitters.

The last generation saw a myriad of entries into the market. The 32/64 Bit era was jump-started, many would say prematurely, by the Philips CD-I and the 3DO. These systems attempted to introduce the concept of "set-top boxes" that would do more than just gaming. However, between a lack of decent titles, ridiculously high price tags, and consumer apathy, these two consoles quickly disappeared. Atari also tried to get in on the fun with its "64-Bit" (really just four 16-Bit chips running in tandem) Jaguar. A combination of horrible, horrible software and being hideously underpowered led the Jag to and early, and well-deserved, grave.

With all of that monkey business behind us, in 1995 we finally saw the real 32-Bit machines. Sega, in a fit of unprecedented stupidity, launched its Saturn with a surprise release four months ahead of schedule. Sega neglected to fill in many retailers on its plans, and the initial price tag was about $500. Bad move. When Sony’s now-famous Playstation debuted later that September, it was obvious that Sony has planned ahead for the advent of 3-D gaming. Comparing Virtua Fighter and Toshinden was a telling sign of things to come. However, instead of catering to the Saturn’s strengths (2-D insanity), Sega instead killed the machine through a combination of terrible marketing and idiotic decisions regarding U.S. releases. I personally love my Saturn, but even I have to admit that about 2/3 of my Saturn games are imports.

By the time Nintendo got around to releasing its Nintendo64 in 1997, the Saturn was practically dead and buried. Nintendo garnered impressive sales right out of the gate with promises of "quality over quantity". Well, they got it half right. While the N64’s library is one of the most anemic in history, that library also consists of about 95% crap. With first-party games being mainly aimed toward the kiddies, the N64 quickly became the "little brother’s system". Sony now has the best-selling console in history, with over 26 million units sold in the United States alone, and has quite handily defeated all comers. Not bad for the new guy.

We now stand on the brink of a new generation, and this one looks to be the most crowded yet. We will eventually have consoles from the big three (Sega, Sony, and Nintendo), as well as entries from Microsoft and some company called Indrema. Even the NUON DVD player is supposed to play games of some sort. That’s a six-way race, kids, and it could get ugly. Given the information that we have now, here is how I see things turning out:

Sega Dreamcast – as usual, Sega is first out of the gate. This can be a two-edged sword: This does give Sega a year head start over Sony, and two years over everyone else. However, Sega will also find itself on the low rung of the technology ladder within 12-18 months. This doesn’t necessarily mean Sega is done for, however. Back when the SNES came out, the Genesis was almost half the price and had a wide variety of titles. Even though the SNES was technically superior, that head start was all Sega needed to stay on top. History may repeat itself this fall, when Sony launches its Playstation2 at $300-$400. I would truly be shocked if Sega didn’t drop the DC to $149 to counter Sony, so Sega could conceivably have a comparable system for half the price. Hardcore gamers don’t balk at high prices, but this could be VERY attractive to mainstream America, which is notoriously price-sensitive. In my opinion, Sega also makes the best first-party games in the world. Between Sonic Team and the arcade divisions, Sega could carry the DC all by itself. Unlike Nintendo, Sega first-party releases happen a couple of times a month, and cover pretty much all genres. Throw in the unwavering support of Capcom, and its Resident Evil and fighting game franchises, and you’ve got a pretty healthy library. The number of DC developers has also grown significantly, with Electronic Arts and Squaresoft being the only notable holdouts. Sega will also be the first to have Internet gaming, which could be a major selling point (if they ever get it working). Now, if Sega would just drop their current god-awful marketing and bring back the "Sega!" scream, I think they’d be sittin’ pretty.

Sony Playstation2 – this is the odds-on favorite to walk off with the majority of sales in the next generation. And, it could very well happen. Sony’s mindshare has never been greater, and both hardcore and mainstream gamers alike swear by Sony. After having finally played the PS2, I can say that it is a very nice system, but nowhere near as powerful as the hype would have us believe. However, this baby is pushing a lot of polys, and the DVD movie playback and backwards-compatibility could make it attractive to families looking for more than just a "game machine". And, the console itself is just plain sexy. However, after PS2 hype had reached unprecedented levels, when the system was finally released in Japan, the general consensus was one of disappointment. I have been saying all along that the PS2 would be an evolution, not a revolution, and it looks like that is the case. To be honest, the PS2 does not look significantly better than the Dreamcast. In fact, the word is that Soul Calibur looks better than Tekken Tag, and that the DC version of Dead or Alive 2 looks nicer than the PS2 rev. Now, there’s no doubt that part of this is due to the fact that these are first generation titles that were probably rushed, but there are also weaknesses in the hardware that have become apparent. First, it seems that hardware anti-aliasing was not included. AA basically smoothes out the rough edges of objects, and the Dreamcast, and even the N64, have it built in. Sony swears that this is only a temporary pitfall, and that the effect can be done in software. Most actual developers, however, claim that this could be a problem throughout the PS2 lifecycle. The PS2 also only has half as much video RAM as the Dreamcast (PS2 has 4Megs vs. DC’s 8). This means that there is less room for textures and AI with the PS2. The PS2 does use faster access RAM, however, so hopefully this will not be a problem. Further haunting Sony is the launch itself. With the memory cards all being defective, reports of skipping and overheating, and the ineffectiveness of the DVD territorial lockouts (possibly resulting in a lawsuit from Hollywood), the Japanese launch has given Sony no end of headaches. Considering all of the problems that the original Playstation had (I’m on my third one, myself), that overheating thing has me particularly concerned. Sony also has very little in the way of quality first-party development. Of course, Sony does have practically every developer on the planet falling all over themselves to make games for the PS2, so the library is sure to be immense and varied. The hardware does not suck by any stretch of the imagination, and it is really cool to have a DVD, CD, and game player all in one. Broadband Internet access is also an intriguing, if not currently feasible, concept. Sony is rumored to have 47 titles ready for launch, so as long as they can hammer out those hardware problems, there’s no reason to think that they won’t succeed. Then again, no company has ever held the leading position for two consecutive generations…

Nintendo Dolphin – let’s face it: Nintendo has never had less consumer mindshare than it does right now. The Nintendo64, while profitable for Nintendo, has been considered a complete failure by publishers and consumers alike. The archaic cartridge format has filled Nintendo’s coffers, but third-parties are usually lucky to break even on any given title. The Nintendo name is now equated with "kid stuff", and the Big N is seemingly unwilling and unable to change that. Nintendo may have Pokemon, but anyone over the age of ten is now very apathetic toward anything with the Nintendo name on it. How the N64 is supposed to last another year and a half is beyond me, but Nintendo has announced that its questionably named Dolphin system will hit in Spring 2001. The new system will finally use optical media, with a DVD-ROM that will strangely not play DVD movies (?). The specs one-up the PS2 in almost every way, but we’ll see what happens. Nintendo is notorious for, shall we say, embellishing the capabilities of their hardware (remember when the N64 was supposed to rival an SGI workstation in power?). Also, while everyone and their mothers have jumped on board PS2, only Acclaim has announced any real third-party development for the system. That’s not a good sign. And, dammit, Nintendo needs to realize that there are gamers out there who don’t still wet their beds. Perfect Dark and Conker are a good step in the right direction, but Nintendo is going to have to produce more mature, edgier software if it is ever going to become "cool" again. Give me a 128-Bit, 2-D Metroid, and then we’ll talk.

Microsoft X-Box – this is the wild-card. Microsoft is now in much the same position that Sony was in 1995. They have never produced a console, but they are a huge corporation with their fingers in a lot of pies. The specs of the X-Box are impressive, with a decidedly PC-like architecture that includes a 600MHz Intel Pentium CPU, a next-gen nVidia graphics card, 64 Megs of RAM, and an 8-Gig hard drive. This will also be (surprise, surprise) a DVD-based system, and it will feature movie playback. Most of the major players, including Namco, Capcom, Konami, and Electronic Arts, have announced X-Box support. It has been revealed, though, that X-Box will in fact not play regular PC games, so actual ports will have to be done. So, in order to stand out from the crowd, Microsoft is going to have to secure a decent number of AAA exclusive titles. MS themselves have some decent first-party talent, but it remains to be seen if console gamers will be interested in their wares. PC and console gamers are pretty different animals, and Microsoft must recognize this. Still, we’re talking about Bill Gates here, and he’s a wily one. Microsoft is notorious for buying their way into any market, so we’ll see if they can pull it off on an industry as well established as console gaming. The X-Box is slated for a Fall 2001 launch.

Indrema – who the hell are these guys? Quite frankly, I’ve never, eeeeever heard of them before, and at first I thought that their console announcement was some kind of early April Fool’s joke. Very little is known about this one, but the early specs seem to be almost identical to those of the X-Box. Of note is the intended use of Linux for the operating system. Much more stable than Windows, it will be interesting to see if that provides for a selling point. The Indrema is also supposedly going to launch in Fall 2001 and is supposed to include some kind of MP3 support. That’s about all we know about this one right now. With no real name recognition or experience in the industry, though, this one just screams "3DO".

VM Labs NUON – if the Indrema is the next generation’s 3DO, then this one looks like the next CD-I. This is being marketed as a DVD player first, and game player second. It’s a good thing, too, as most of the system’s early titles are just remakes of old Jaguar games. The DVD player has some cool options, such as an amazing zoom-in feature, but I’m not sure if anyone will care. Power-wise, this only looks to be on par with the current Playstation, so it’s not really anything to get excited about.

So, knowing what we know right now, here’s my forecast: Due to overwhelming hype and a hopefully decent launch library, I see Playstation2 taking the lead fairly quickly. However, due to a large installed base, great library, and low cost, I see Dreamcast nipping at Sony’s heels at a very close second. As I said before, the X-Box is a real wild-card, so anything could happen here. My guess is, though, that Microsoft will assume the third-place position. With Nintendo’s low mindshare and reluctance to discuss their next system at all, I’m guessing that pretty much everyone will have either a Dreamcast or Playstation2 by the time the Dolphin pokes its head out of the water. Also, with X-Box launching about the same time as Dolphin (it will likely slip to fall), I see Nintendo falling to a distant fourth. I really don’t think the Indrema or NUON will make any impact whatsoever, so it looks more like a four-way race. Now, this is just my take on things, and I could be completely off the mark. After all, in this biz anything can happen, and it usually does. The real question for me, though, is "Can the industry support four consoles?" The market is far larger than it has even been, but I honestly don’t think that four consoles can thrive in this day and age, so somebody could get bumped off. Who and when? Well, we’ll just have to wait and see.

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